Heavier Rainfall and Rising Heat: UN Climate Forecasts for 2025–2029
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Global Climate Outlook: 2025–2029
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released its latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, projecting significant climatic changes for the period 2025–2029. Key forecasts include:
- Temperature Rise: An 80% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
- 1.5°C Threshold: A 70% probability that the five-year average global temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a critical limit set by the Paris Agreement.
- Arctic Warming: The Arctic region is expected to warm at more than three times the global average, leading to accelerated ice melt and sea-level rise.
Implications for the Indian Subcontinent
The Indian subcontinent is projected to experience:
- Increased Rainfall: Continued above-average monsoon rainfall from 2025 to 2029, heightening the risk of floods and associated challenges.
- Extended Heatwaves: Longer and more intense heatwaves, with temperatures frequently exceeding historical norms, impacting health, agriculture, and water resources.
Global Consequences
The anticipated climatic shifts are expected to have widespread effects:
- Extreme Weather Events: An increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires.
- Economic and Health Impacts: Rising temperatures and extreme weather are likely to adversely affect global economies, public health, and food security.
Urgent Call for Action
The WMO emphasizes the need for immediate and sustained efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. This includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions, enhancing climate resilience, and supporting sustainable development initiatives worldwide.
